Orgryte IS 2-2 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Bravida Arena to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Bravida Arena, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AFC Eskilstuna away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Orgryte IS) versus 1.00 (AFC Eskilstuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Orgryte IS, 2 for AFC Eskilstuna and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 63% versus AFC Eskilstuna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 52% | AFC Eskilstuna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.52 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.061 / defence 0.955 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.983 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.121. Data: 30 Orgryte IS games / 30 AFC Eskilstuna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 48% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 26%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.85. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 50% | AFC Eskilstuna 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 48% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Orgryte IS 1.52 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.061 / def 0.955 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.983 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.05
AFC Eskilstuna xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 April 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Orgryte IS 2 - 2 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 48% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (4 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 2 | AFC Eskilstuna 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (1.06) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.89
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.57
1.05
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
17.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.05 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 18W 25D 17L from 60 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 26L across 60 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.32 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 8W 15D 7L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 7W 6D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.48 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 18W 25D 17L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.30 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jul 2021, when AFC Eskilstuna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
2
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 60%, AFC Eskilstuna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Orgryte IS) and 53% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 27% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Orgryte IS's games and 57% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 53% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna finished level at 2-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.52 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.05 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 48% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 26%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 52%, AFC Eskilstuna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.32 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.