Orebro SK 5-3 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Orebro SK face Skövde AIK.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Skövde AIK at Behrn Arena in Superettan (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 17 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Skövde AIK have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Skövde AIK away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orebro SK at 1.20 PPG versus Skövde AIK's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Orebro SK, 1 for Skövde AIK and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Orebro SK 2–1 Skövde AIK — a Orebro SK win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Skövde AIK in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 45% versus Skövde AIK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 47% | Skövde AIK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.60 xG and Skövde AIK 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.834 / defence 0.662 | Skövde AIK attack 0.764 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.180. Skövde AIK's defence rating of 1.280 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Orebro SK's projected output up. Skövde AIK's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Orebro SK have a tight defence (rating 0.662), which is pulling Skövde AIK's projected output down. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 51 games and Skövde AIK's last 51.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 61% | Draw 27% | Skövde AIK 13%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.64 | Draw 3.75 | Skövde AIK 7.97. The model has a clear lean to Orebro SK (61%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orebro SK 30% (last 10 home games) | Skövde AIK 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 22 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 61% | Draw 27% | Skövde AIK 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Orebro SK 1.60 / Skövde AIK 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.834 / def 0.662 | Skövde AIK attack 0.764 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Skövde AIK xG
37%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK FAQs
What time does Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Orebro SK 5 - 3 Skövde AIK.
Where is Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK part of?
Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 22) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 61% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 13% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Orebro SK and Skövde AIK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.83) and Skövde AIK's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Orebro SK's last 51 games and Skövde AIK's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
61%
1.64
27%
3.75
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.20
0.60
Skövde AIK xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
33%
2.99
3%
39.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.60 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 15W 17D 19L from 51 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Skövde AIK, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 21L across 51 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.22 PPG, Skövde AIK on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 9W 10D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Skövde AIK's away record stands at 7W 5D 14L across their last 26 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.14 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
Orebro SK (Home) vs Skövde AIK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orebro SK
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK Form FAQs
What form are Orebro SK and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 15W 17D 19L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 15W 15D 21L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Skövde AIK away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.42 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orebro SK's record when hosting Skövde AIK specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
2
Draws
2
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Skövde AIK?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Orebro SK have won 2, Skövde AIK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Skövde AIK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 November 2024: Skövde AIK 2-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 38%, Skövde AIK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Orebro SK) and 62% (Skövde AIK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 38% of games; Skövde AIK in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orebro SK and Skövde AIK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 54% of Skövde AIK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Orebro SK and Skövde AIK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Orebro SK's recent games and 62% of Skövde AIK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Skövde AIK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 73% of Skövde AIK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Skövde AIK 5-3 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.60 xG and Skövde AIK 0.60 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Skövde AIK outscored their 0.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.83 / defence 0.66 against Skövde AIK attack 0.76 / defence 1.28, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 61% | Draw 27% | Skövde AIK 13%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 47%, Skövde AIK 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.22 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.