Orebro SK 0-0 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Norrby IF make the trip to Behrn Arena to face Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Orebro SK (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Behrn Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Norrby IF have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Orebro SK, 0 for Norrby IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Orebro SK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Norrby IF half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 45% versus Norrby IF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 51% | Norrby IF 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.50 xG and Norrby IF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.717 / defence 1.003 | Norrby IF attack 0.887 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.372. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Norrby IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Orebro SK games / 51 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 42% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 30%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Norrby IF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 30% | Norrby IF 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 42% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Orebro SK 1.50 / Norrby IF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.717 / def 1.003 | Norrby IF attack 0.887 / def 1.495 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Norrby IF xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Norrby IF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Norrby IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Norrby IF?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 Norrby IF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Norrby IF part of?
Orebro SK vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 42% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Orebro SK and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Norrby IF?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and Norrby IF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Norrby IF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.72x the league average against Norrby IF's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.89x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.56
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.72
1.22
Norrby IF xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
13%
8.00
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.22 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 12W 9D 30L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF's form line: 19W 14D 18L from 51 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Norrby IF are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.00 PPG from 25 outings (7W 4D 14L).
On the road, Norrby IF have gone 9W 5D 11L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.25 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 12W 9D 30L in their last 51 games (0.88 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 19W 14D 18L in their last 51 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Norrby IF away?
Norrby IF's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.00 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
2
Draws
0
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Norrby IF?
From 3 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Norrby IF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Orebro SK 1-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Norrby IF?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 48%, Norrby IF 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Orebro SK) and 56% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Orebro SK's games and 64% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Orebro SK's recent games and 56% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and Norrby IF finished level at 0-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.50 xG and Norrby IF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Norrby IF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.72 / defence 1.00 against Norrby IF attack 0.89 / defence 1.50, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 42% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 30%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 51%, Norrby IF 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Norrby IF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.