Orebro SK 3-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 42%, yet in-form Orebro SK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Jonkopings Sodra at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 12 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Orebro SK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orebro SK have posted 6W 1D 3L at Behrn Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Orebro SK carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Orebro SK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 53% versus Jonkopings Sodra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | Jonkopings Sodra 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.31 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.879 / defence 1.150 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.969 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.337. Data: 1 Orebro SK games / 31 Jonkopings Sodra games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 33% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 42%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jonkopings Sodra are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orebro SK (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 80% | Jonkopings Sodra 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 33% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Orebro SK 1.31 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.879 / def 1.150 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.969 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Jonkopings Sodra xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 12 April 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Orebro SK 3 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 33% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.88x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
33%
3.01
25%
3.97
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.80
1.49
Jonkopings Sodra xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
7%
13.34
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.49 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 12W 6D 12L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. Orebro SK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Jonkopings Sodra's form line: 10W 8D 12L from 30 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.40 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.13 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.80 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2023, when Orebro SK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
2
Draws
0
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2023, when Orebro SK 3-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 60%, Jonkopings Sodra 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Orebro SK) and 40% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 47% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Orebro SK's recent games and 40% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Jonkopings Sodra 3-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.31 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.49 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 33% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 42%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Orebro SK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, Jonkopings Sodra 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.40 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.