Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Falkenbergs FF (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Orebro SK face Falkenbergs FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Orebro SK welcome Falkenbergs FF to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 October 2026 at 18:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Falkenbergs FF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Falkenbergs FF's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Orebro SK's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orebro SK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Falkenbergs FF in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orebro SK, 3 for Falkenbergs FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Falkenbergs FF in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orebro SK 67% and Falkenbergs FF 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 53% | Falkenbergs FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.23 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.774 / defence 1.055 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.330 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Falkenbergs FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Orebro SK games / 51 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 25% | Draw 25% | Falkenbergs FF 50%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Falkenbergs FF 2.00. Falkenbergs FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Falkenbergs FF as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Falkenbergs FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 60% | Falkenbergs FF 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Oct 2026, 18:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 25% | Draw 25% | Falkenbergs FF 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Orebro SK 1.23 / Falkenbergs FF 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.774 / def 1.055 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.330 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Falkenbergs FF xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF is scheduled to kick off at 18:05 on Monday 26 October 2026 at Behrn Arena.
Where is Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 25% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (5 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 1 | Falkenbergs FF 3W.
What form are Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.77x the league average against Falkenbergs FF's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
25%
4.03
25%
3.97
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
3.05
1.82
Falkenbergs FF xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
4%
24.77
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.82 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 9W 18D 24L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Falkenbergs FF's form line: 23W 15D 13L from 51 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Falkenbergs FF are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (7W 9D 9L).
On the road, Falkenbergs FF have gone 9W 7D 9L from 25 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.84 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Falkenbergs FF in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 9W 18D 24L in their last 51 games (0.88 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 23W 15D 13L in their last 51 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
Falkenbergs FF's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.20 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 14 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Orebro SK won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Falkenbergs FF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
1
Draws
3
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF?
From 5 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2026, when Falkenbergs FF 1-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Orebro SK at 60%, Falkenbergs FF at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Orebro SK and 76% for Falkenbergs FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Falkenbergs FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Orebro SK's games and 76% of Falkenbergs FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Orebro SK's matches and 76% of Falkenbergs FF's.
Do Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.