Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Utsikten in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Utsikten's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Utsikten away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 2W, Utsikten 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Utsikten winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Utsikten — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 55% versus Utsikten 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 58% | Utsikten 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.53 xG and Utsikten 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.149 / defence 1.070 | Utsikten attack 0.921 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.257. Data: 32 Landskrona BoIS games / 32 Utsikten games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 31%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Utsikten 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Utsikten 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.53 / Utsikten 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.149 / def 1.070 | Utsikten attack 0.921 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Utsikten xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 44% chance of winning, Utsikten a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten?
Record (6 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 2W | Draws 1 | Utsikten 3W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Utsikten (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.15) and Utsikten's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (0.92x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
44%
2.27
25%
3.98
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.77
1.24
Utsikten xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.24 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 25W 13D 22L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Utsikten's form line: 25W 16D 19L from 60 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.52 for Utsikten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (14W 8D 8L).
On the road, Utsikten have gone 9W 9D 12L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.42 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 25W 13D 22L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 25W 16D 19L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Utsikten away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.67 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utsikten won 5-1 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Utsikten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
4
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Utsikten have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Utsikten 4-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Utsikten see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 53%, Utsikten 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Landskrona BoIS) and 37% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Utsikten in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 47% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 37% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Utsikten 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Utsikten 2-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.53 xG and Utsikten 1.24 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.15 / defence 1.07 against Utsikten attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 31%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 58%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, Utsikten 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.