Landskrona BoIS 1-3 Umeå FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 27 as Landskrona BoIS welcome Umeå FC to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's home record at Landskrona Idrottsplats: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Umeå FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Umeå FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Umeå FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Landskrona BoIS have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Umeå FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Umeå FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Umeå FC in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 54% versus Umeå FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 54% | Umeå FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.90 xG and Umeå FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.890 / defence 0.954 | Umeå FC attack 0.803 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.135. Umeå FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Landskrona BoIS games / 26 Umeå FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 61% | Draw 22% | Umeå FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Umeå FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Umeå FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 61% | Draw 22% | Umeå FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.90 / Umeå FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.890 / def 0.954 | Umeå FC attack 0.803 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Umeå FC xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 3 Umeå FC.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 61% chance of winning, Umeå FC a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Umeå FC will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Umeå FC?
Record (1 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 0 | Umeå FC 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Umeå FC in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Umeå FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.89) and Umeå FC's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Umeå FC's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.48
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.77
0.87
Umeå FC xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
2%
40.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Umeå FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.87 for Umeå FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 10W 7D 9L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Umeå FC's form line: 2W 6D 18L from 26 games, 0.46 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Umeå FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Umeå FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.69 PPG from 13 outings (6W 4D 3L).
On the road, Umeå FC have gone 1W 3D 9L from 13 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Umeå FC are on 0.77 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Umeå FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Umeå FC in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 10W 7D 9L in their last 26 games (1.42 PPG), while Umeå FC have gone 2W 6D 18L in their last 26 (0.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Umeå FC away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.69 PPG; Umeå FC away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Umeå FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
1
Umeå FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Umeå FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Umeå FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Umeå FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Landskrona BoIS 1-3 Umeå FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Umeå FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 62%, Umeå FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Landskrona BoIS and 62% for Umeå FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Umeå FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Umeå FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Umeå FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 54% of Umeå FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 62% of Umeå FC's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Umeå FC tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Umeå FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Umeå FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Umeå FC beat Landskrona BoIS 1-3 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.90 xG and Umeå FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Umeå FC outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against Umeå FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.35, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 61% | Draw 22% | Umeå FC 16%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Umeå FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 54%, Umeå FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Umeå FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.46. Form was overturned, with Umeå FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Umeå FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.