Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Landskrona BoIS (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Landskrona BoIS face Trelleborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Trelleborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 31 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 6W 3D 1L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Trelleborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Landskrona BoIS, 0 for Trelleborg and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 60% and Trelleborg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 48% | Trelleborg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 2.18 xG and Trelleborg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.130 / defence 1.083 | Trelleborg attack 1.154 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.129. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Landskrona BoIS games / 39 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 21% | Trelleborg 24%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Trelleborg 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Trelleborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 21% | Trelleborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Landskrona BoIS 2.18 / Trelleborg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.130 / def 1.083 | Trelleborg attack 1.154 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Trelleborg xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 55% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
Record (4 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 2W | Draws 2 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
55%
1.83
21%
4.72
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.59
1.41
Trelleborg xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
11%
8.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
3%
36.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.41 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 16D 20L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.47 PPG from 60 outings (24W 16D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.47 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 19W 7D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Trelleborg in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Trelleborg away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.13 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Landskrona BoIS
3
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, Trelleborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Trelleborg 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Landskrona BoIS at 67%, Trelleborg at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Landskrona BoIS) and 53% (Trelleborg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 67% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 53% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 10, as Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 2.18 xG and Trelleborg 1.41 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.13 / defence 1.08 against Trelleborg attack 1.15 / defence 1.32, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 21% | Trelleborg 24%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 48%, Trelleborg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, Trelleborg 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.