Landskrona BoIS 2-0 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK meet at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 6W 3D 1L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Skövde AIK's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Skövde AIK have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Landskrona BoIS's favour (2.10 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 0W, Skövde AIK 2W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Skövde AIK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Skövde AIK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 62% versus Skövde AIK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 50% | Skövde AIK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.30 xG and Skövde AIK 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.012 / defence 1.214 | Skövde AIK attack 0.851 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.034. Data: 32 Landskrona BoIS games / 32 Skövde AIK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 42% | Draw 28% | Skövde AIK 30%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Skövde AIK 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Skövde AIK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 42% | Draw 28% | Skövde AIK 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.30 / Skövde AIK 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.012 / def 1.214 | Skövde AIK attack 0.851 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Skövde AIK xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 0 Skövde AIK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 42% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK?
Record (2 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 0 | Skövde AIK 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Skövde AIK (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.01) and Skövde AIK's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Skövde AIK's attack (0.85x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.62
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.37
1.07
Skövde AIK xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.07 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 11D 9L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Skövde AIK sit at 1.50 PPG from 32 outings (12W 12D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.50 for Skövde AIK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 9W 5D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Skövde AIK have taken 1.44 points per game from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.34 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Skövde AIK in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Skövde AIK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 12W 11D 9L in their last 32 games (1.47 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 12W 12D 8L in their last 32 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Skövde AIK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.00 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Landskrona BoIS won 4-1 on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Skövde AIK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
3
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK?
From 6 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Skövde AIK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2024, when Landskrona BoIS 4-1 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Landskrona BoIS, 56% for Skövde AIK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Landskrona BoIS) and 56% (Skövde AIK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Skövde AIK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 56% of Skövde AIK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 56% of Skövde AIK's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Skövde AIK 2-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.30 xG and Skövde AIK 1.07 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Skövde AIK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.01 / defence 1.21 against Skövde AIK attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 42% | Draw 28% | Skövde AIK 30%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 50%, Skövde AIK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.