Landskrona BoIS 1-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host IK brage at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
IK brage's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IK brage — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 57% versus IK brage 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 47% | IK brage 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.74 xG and IK brage 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.157 / defence 1.275 | IK brage attack 1.203 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.438. IK brage have an above-average attack strength of 1.203 — the away xG of 2.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Landskrona BoIS games / 38 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 30% | Draw 22% | IK brage 48%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | IK brage 2.08. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 2.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 50% | IK brage 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 30% | Draw 22% | IK brage 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.74 / IK brage 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.157 / def 1.275 | IK brage attack 1.203 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: IK brage (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
2.21
IK brage xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 30% chance of winning, IK brage a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. IK brage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.16) and IK brage's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 2.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
30%
3.34
22%
4.50
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.95
2.21
IK brage xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.89
Clean Sheet
11%
9.08
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
3%
30.31
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 2.21 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Landskrona BoIS's recent record stands at 13W 5D 12L from 30 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 11L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.47 PPG, IK brage on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Landskrona BoIS have managed 11W 2D 2L from 15 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IK brage's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 13W 5D 12L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while IK brage have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or IK brage away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.33 PPG; IK brage away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
5
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, IK brage have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when IK brage 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 53%, IK brage 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Landskrona BoIS) and 60% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; IK brage in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 67% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 60% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and IK brage tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IK brage in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and IK brage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 9, as Landskrona BoIS and IK brage drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.74 xG and IK brage 2.21 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IK brage landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 / defence 1.27 against IK brage attack 1.20 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 30% | Draw 22% | IK brage 48%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 47%, IK brage 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, IK brage 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.