Landskrona BoIS 2-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host IK brage at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IK brage's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Landskrona BoIS at 1.20 PPG versus IK brage's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IK brage in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Landskrona BoIS, 2 for IK brage and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–4 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 57% versus IK brage 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 57% | IK brage 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.01 xG and IK brage 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.887 / defence 0.965 | IK brage attack 0.866 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.372. IK brage's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Landskrona BoIS games / 39 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 32% | Draw 29% | IK brage 39%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | IK brage 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 60% | IK brage 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 32% | Draw 29% | IK brage 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.01 / IK brage 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.887 / def 0.965 | IK brage attack 0.866 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: IK brage (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.15
IK brage xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 2 IK brage.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 32% chance of winning, IK brage a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
Record (8 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 2W | Draws 4 | IK brage 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. IK brage (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.89) and IK brage's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
32%
3.15
29%
3.40
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.16
1.15
IK brage xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.15 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Landskrona BoIS's recent record stands at 24W 15D 21L from 60 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 22L across 60 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.45 PPG, IK brage on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Landskrona BoIS have managed 13W 10D 7L from 30 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.37 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while IK brage have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or IK brage away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.63 PPG; IK brage away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
5
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, IK brage have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when IK brage 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 57%, IK brage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Landskrona BoIS) and 43% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IK brage in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 50% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 43% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and IK brage tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IK brage in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and IK brage share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 10, as Landskrona BoIS and IK brage drew 2-2 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.01 xG and IK brage 1.15 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IK brage outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against IK brage attack 0.87 / defence 0.77, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 32% | Draw 29% | IK brage 39%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 57%, IK brage 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.45 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.