Kalmar FF 3-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kalmar FF and Landskrona BoIS meet at Guldfågeln Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 June 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kalmar FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kalmar FF's home record at Guldfågeln Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Kalmar FF's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 47% versus Landskrona BoIS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 50% | Landskrona BoIS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.66 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 1.020 / defence 0.770 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.201 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.326. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Kalmar FF's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 11 Kalmar FF games / 41 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 48% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 28%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Landskrona BoIS 3.57. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 40% | Landskrona BoIS 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jun 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 48% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Kalmar FF 1.66 / Landskrona BoIS 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 1.020 / def 0.770 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.201 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Landskrona BoIS xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 June 2025 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Kalmar FF 3 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 48% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kalmar FF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (1.02) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (1.20x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.14
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.89
1.23
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
5%
18.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.23 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 6D 11L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. Kalmar FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.63 PPG from 30 outings (14W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.63 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kalmar FF's home form reads 8W 3D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.40 points per game from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.53 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.80 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 24 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
0
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 2 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2025, when Landskrona BoIS 0-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Landskrona BoIS?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 47%, Landskrona BoIS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Kalmar FF) and 60% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 60% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 60% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out Landskrona BoIS 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Landskrona BoIS 3-2 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.66 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.23 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.02 / defence 0.77 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.20 / defence 1.17, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 48% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 28%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 50%, Landskrona BoIS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.