Jonkopings Sodra 5-2 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Utsikten at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Utsikten make the trip to Stadsparksvallen to face Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jonkopings Sodra at Stadsparksvallen this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.21 xG and Utsikten 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.028 / defence 1.519 | Utsikten attack 1.009 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.370. Utsikten's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Jonkopings Sodra games / 6 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 21% | Draw 21% | Utsikten 58%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Utsikten 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Utsikten (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 21% | Draw 21% | Utsikten 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.21 / Utsikten 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.028 / def 1.519 | Utsikten attack 1.009 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Utsikten xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten?
Jonkopings Sodra 5 - 2 Utsikten.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 21% chance of winning, Utsikten a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Jonkopings Sodra home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (1.01x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
21%
4.68
21%
4.81
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
3.31
2.10
Utsikten xG
4.68
21%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
12%
8.15
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
3%
38.10
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 2.10 for Utsikten, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
Utsikten
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Utsikten have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jonkopings Sodra won 5-2 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Utsikten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
2
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, Utsikten have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 Utsikten.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Jonkopings Sodra run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Utsikten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Utsikten 5-2 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.21 xG and Utsikten 2.10 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.03 / defence 1.52 against Utsikten attack 1.01 / defence 0.78, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 21% | Draw 21% | Utsikten 58%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Jonkopings Sodra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.