Jonkopings Sodra 0-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Orebro SK travel to Stadsparksvallen to take on Jonkopings Sodra. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jonkopings Sodra — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadsparksvallen — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Orebro SK's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jonkopings Sodra at 1.60 PPG versus Orebro SK's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Jonkopings Sodra, 1 for Orebro SK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 60% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 50% | Orebro SK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.34 xG and Orebro SK 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.005 / defence 1.057 | Orebro SK attack 0.958 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.121. Data: 30 Jonkopings Sodra games / 30 Orebro SK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 32%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Orebro SK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 70% | Orebro SK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.34 / Orebro SK 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.005 / def 1.057 | Orebro SK attack 0.958 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Orebro SK xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 April 2023 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 41% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK?
Record (2 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 1.00x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
41%
2.41
27%
3.71
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.48
1.14
Orebro SK xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.14 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jonkopings Sodra's recent record stands at 19W 17D 24L from 60 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Orebro SK, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 33L across 60 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.23 PPG, Orebro SK on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jonkopings Sodra have managed 11W 8D 11L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orebro SK's away record stands at 6W 6D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.93 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Orebro SK away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.37 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2023, when Orebro SK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Jonkopings Sodra
2
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, Orebro SK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2023, when Orebro SK 3-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 63%, Orebro SK 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 50% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 30% of games; Orebro SK in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 43% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 50% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jonkopings Sodra's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 1, as Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.34 xG and Orebro SK 1.14 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Orebro SK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Orebro SK attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 32%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 50%, Orebro SK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.23 PPG, Orebro SK 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.