IK brage 3-0 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasalund at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Vasalund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Vasalund at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 30 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's home record at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Vasalund — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasalund's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 1.00 PPG, Vasalund 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IK brage, 1 for Vasalund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Vasalund winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
IK brage trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Vasalund trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 59% versus Vasalund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 50% | Vasalund 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.21 xG and Vasalund 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.943 / defence 1.544 | Vasalund attack 0.772 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.131. Data: 22 IK brage games / 22 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 33% | Draw 27% | Vasalund 40%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Vasalund 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasalund as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasalund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 50% | Vasalund 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 33% | Draw 27% | Vasalund 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG IK brage 1.21 / Vasalund 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.943 / def 1.544 | Vasalund attack 0.772 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Vasalund (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Vasalund xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Vasalund kick off?
IK brage vs Vasalund kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 30 September 2021 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Vasalund?
IK brage 3 - 0 Vasalund.
Where is IK brage vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Vasalund part of?
IK brage vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 33% chance of winning, Vasalund a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vasalund the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IK brage and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Vasalund?
Record (1 meetings): IK brage 0W | Draws 0 | Vasalund 1W.
What form are IK brage and Vasalund in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Vasalund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IK brage's attack at 0.94x the league average against Vasalund's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasalund's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
33%
2.99
27%
3.76
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.56
1.35
Vasalund xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.50
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are IK brage and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for IK brage and 1.35 for Vasalund, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Vasalund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 7D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasalund sit at 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (6W 3D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.00 PPG, Vasalund on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasalund have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Vasalund are on 1.23 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Vasalund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Vasalund in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Vasalund have gone 6W 3D 13L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Vasalund away?
IK brage's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.10 PPG; Vasalund away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Vasalund runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IK brage
0
Draws
1
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, IK brage have won 1, Vasalund have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2021, when IK brage 3-0 Vasalund.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Vasalund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 50%, Vasalund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IK brage) and 60% (Vasalund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage have failed to score in 30% of games; Vasalund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Vasalund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IK brage's recent matches and 50% of Vasalund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Vasalund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of IK brage's matches and 60% of Vasalund's.
Do IK brage and Vasalund tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Vasalund in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IK brage run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vasalund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Vasalund 3-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.21 xG and Vasalund 1.35 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasalund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.94 / defence 1.54 against Vasalund attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 33% | Draw 27% | Vasalund 40%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 50%, Vasalund 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasalund's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.00 PPG, Vasalund 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Vasalund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.