IK brage 2-4 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates IK brage at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

IK brage's home record at Domnarvsvallen: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ostersunds FK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 1.20 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for IK brage, 3 for Ostersunds FK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

IK brage in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 53% versus Ostersunds FK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 50% | Ostersunds FK 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.83 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.190 / defence 1.313 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.866 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.340. Data: 36 IK brage games / 36 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: IK brage 45% | Draw 23% | Ostersunds FK 32%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Ostersunds FK 3.12. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 90% | Ostersunds FK 20% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights