IK brage 2-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Osters IF travel to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Osters IF — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Osters IF have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 1.30 PPG, Osters IF 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, IK brage have won 1, Osters IF 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2021, ended 2–1 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IK brage trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Osters IF trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 27% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 56% versus Osters IF 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (IK brage 52% | Osters IF 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.16 xG and Osters IF 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.069 / defence 1.420 | Osters IF attack 0.682 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.128. Data: 23 IK brage games / 23 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 37% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 34%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Osters IF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 50% | Osters IF 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 4 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 37% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG IK brage 1.16 / Osters IF 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.069 / def 1.420 | Osters IF attack 0.682 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: IK brage (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Osters IF xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Osters IF kick off?
IK brage vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 4 October 2021 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Osters IF?
IK brage 2 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is IK brage vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Osters IF part of?
IK brage vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 37% chance of winning, Osters IF a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both IK brage and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Osters IF?
Record (1 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 0 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are IK brage and Osters IF in?
IK brage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Osters IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IK brage's attack at 1.07x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.48
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.25
1.09
Osters IF xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
12%
8.00
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are IK brage and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for IK brage and 1.09 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 6W 7D 10L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF's form line: 8W 7D 8L from 23 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.09 PPG, Osters IF on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 3W 2D 6L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 0.87 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Osters IF in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 8W 7D 8L in their last 23 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Osters IF away?
IK brage's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.27 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have IK brage or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Osters IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Osters IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
IK brage
1
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Osters IF?
From 9 meetings on record, IK brage have won 4, Osters IF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Osters IF 3-2 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Osters IF tend to start slowly — only 27% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 46%, Osters IF 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (IK brage) and 18% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Osters IF in 36%; IK brage have failed to score in 27% of games; Osters IF in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IK brage's recent matches and 27% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of IK brage's recent games and 18% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Osters IF tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 27% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage and Osters IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 24, as IK brage and Osters IF drew 2-2 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.16 xG and Osters IF 1.09 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osters IF outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.07 / defence 1.42 against Osters IF attack 0.68 / defence 1.01, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 37% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 34%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 52%, Osters IF 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.09 PPG, Osters IF 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.