IK brage 1-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Osters IF travel to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 July 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osters IF — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Osters IF have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 1.40 PPG, Osters IF 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IK brage register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Osters IF in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, IK brage have won 2, Osters IF 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IK brage trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Osters IF trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 64% and Osters IF 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 61% | Osters IF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.00 xG and Osters IF 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.200 / defence 0.971 | Osters IF attack 1.289 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.083. Osters IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 IK brage games / 44 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 26%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Osters IF 3.85. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 60% | Osters IF 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG IK brage 2.00 / Osters IF 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.200 / def 0.971 | Osters IF attack 1.289 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: IK brage (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Osters IF xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Osters IF kick off?
IK brage vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Osters IF?
IK brage 1 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is IK brage vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Osters IF part of?
IK brage vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 52% chance of winning, Osters IF a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IK brage and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Osters IF?
Record (4 meetings): IK brage 2W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 1W.
What form are IK brage and Osters IF in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Osters IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IK brage's attack at 1.20x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
52%
1.91
22%
4.62
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.36
1.36
Osters IF xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
4%
28.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are IK brage and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for IK brage and 1.36 for Osters IF, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 17W 11D 16L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF's form line: 19W 11D 14L from 44 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.41 PPG, Osters IF on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 8W 7D 7L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.61 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Osters IF in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Osters IF in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 17W 11D 16L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 19W 11D 14L in their last 44 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Osters IF away?
IK brage's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.59 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Osters IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
IK brage
1
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Osters IF?
From 9 meetings on record, IK brage have won 4, Osters IF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Osters IF 3-2 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 59%, Osters IF 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (IK brage) and 59% (Osters IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of IK brage's games and 68% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of IK brage's matches and 59% of Osters IF's.
Do IK brage and Osters IF tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osters IF defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat IK brage 1-2 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.00 xG and Osters IF 1.36 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IK brage fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.20 / defence 0.97 against Osters IF attack 1.29 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 52% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 26%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Osters IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 61%, Osters IF 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.41 PPG, Osters IF 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.