IK brage 4-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 13 as IK brage welcome Orgryte IS to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IK brage — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's home record at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, IK brage have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IK brage, 2 for Orgryte IS and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–4 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 62% versus Orgryte IS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 60% | Orgryte IS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.25 xG and Orgryte IS 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.028 / defence 0.940 | Orgryte IS attack 0.837 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.092. Data: 42 IK brage games / 42 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 45% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 26%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Orgryte IS 3.85. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 60% | Orgryte IS 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 45% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG IK brage 1.25 / Orgryte IS 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.028 / def 0.940 | Orgryte IS attack 0.837 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: IK brage (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Orgryte IS xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Orgryte IS kick off?
IK brage vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
IK brage 4 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is IK brage vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Orgryte IS part of?
IK brage vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 45% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both IK brage and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
Record (4 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 2W.
What form are IK brage and Orgryte IS in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IK brage's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.43
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.11
0.86
Orgryte IS xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are IK brage and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for IK brage and 0.86 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 11D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.21 PPG from 42 outings (12W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.40 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IK brage's home form reads 9W 5D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.36 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 12W 15D 15L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Orgryte IS away?
IK brage's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.52 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IK brage
3
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 57%, Orgryte IS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IK brage) and 52% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IK brage's games and 57% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of IK brage's recent games and 52% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IK brage run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Orgryte IS 4-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.25 xG and Orgryte IS 0.86 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Orgryte IS attack 0.84 / defence 0.84, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 45% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 26%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 60%, Orgryte IS 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.40 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.