IK brage 1-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Landskrona BoIS at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 6W 2D 2L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IK brage at 1.60 PPG versus Landskrona BoIS's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IK brage, 0 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 62% and Landskrona BoIS 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 60% | Landskrona BoIS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.73 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.012 / defence 0.803 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.794 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.331. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 IK brage games / 48 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 57% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 17%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 5.88. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 60% | Landskrona BoIS 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 57% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG IK brage 1.73 / Landskrona BoIS 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.012 / def 0.803 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.794 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: IK brage (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Landskrona BoIS xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage 1 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 57% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both IK brage and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): IK brage 0W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 0W.
What form are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
57%
1.74
25%
3.93
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.58
0.85
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
3%
32.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for IK brage and 0.85 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 48 games, going 19W 15D 14L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.35 PPG from 48 outings (18W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.50 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 11W 6D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 0.71 points per game from 24 outings (4W 5D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 19W 15D 14L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 11D 19L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
IK brage's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.62 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IK brage
5
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when IK brage 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 50%, Landskrona BoIS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (IK brage) and 54% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IK brage's recent matches and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of IK brage's matches and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do IK brage and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage and Landskrona BoIS finished level at 1-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.73 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.85 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.01 / defence 0.80 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 57% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 17%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 60%, Landskrona BoIS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.50 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.