IK brage 0-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IK brage face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IK brage welcome Degerfors IF to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan (matchday 9). Kick-off is Thursday 23 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
IK brage — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
IK brage's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — IK brage are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Degerfors IF have recorded 3W 7D 0L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (IK brage) versus 1.60 (Degerfors IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of IK brage's games and 70% of Degerfors IF's (from IK brage's last 10 home games and Degerfors IF's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 47% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 57% | Degerfors IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.59 xG and Degerfors IF 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.065 / defence 0.942 | Degerfors IF attack 0.998 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 0.967. Data: built from IK brage's last 38 games and Degerfors IF's last 8.
Result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 20%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.93 | Draw 3.55 | Degerfors IF 5.01. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (IK brage's last 10 home games and Degerfors IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: IK brage 60% (last 10 home games) | Degerfors IF 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 9 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG IK brage 1.59 / Degerfors IF 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.065 / def 0.942 | Degerfors IF attack 0.998 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.333 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: IK brage (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Degerfors IF xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IK brage vs Degerfors IF FAQs
What time does IK brage vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IK brage vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Degerfors IF?
IK brage 0 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is IK brage vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Degerfors IF part of?
IK brage vs Degerfors IF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 9) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 52% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IK brage and Degerfors IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will IK brage vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IK brage's last 38 games and Degerfors IF's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.55
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.50
0.91
Degerfors IF xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
24.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IK brage vs Degerfors IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are IK brage and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for IK brage and 0.91 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 5D 13L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.03 PPG from 30 outings (7W 10D 13L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.37 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 10W 2D 3L across their last 15 home games, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — IK brage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 15 away games (2W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.07 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
IK brage (Home) vs Degerfors IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IK brage
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
❓ IK brage vs Degerfors IF Form FAQs
What form are IK brage and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 12W 5D 13L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Degerfors IF away?
IK brage's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 2.13 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 18 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
IK brage
1
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ IK brage vs Degerfors IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Degerfors IF?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, IK brage have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IK brage and Degerfors IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 August 2024: Degerfors IF 1-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 60%, Degerfors IF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for IK brage and 53% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IK brage vs Degerfors IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IK brage and Degerfors IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of IK brage's games and 67% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IK brage and Degerfors IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of IK brage's matches and 53% of Degerfors IF's.
Do IK brage and Degerfors IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of IK brage's recent matches and 80% of Degerfors IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat IK brage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IK brage 0-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.59 xG and Degerfors IF 0.91 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IK brage fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Degerfors IF attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 52% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 20%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 57%, Degerfors IF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.