IK brage 0-0 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 77%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Dalkurd FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 8 as IK brage welcome Dalkurd FF to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Thursday 19 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IK brage's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalkurd FF stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IK brage at 1.80 PPG versus Dalkurd FF's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.35 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.262 / defence 0.803 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.485 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.399. IK brage carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dalkurd FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 IK brage games / 7 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 77% | Draw 16% | Dalkurd FF 6%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.30 | Draw 6.25 | Dalkurd FF 16.67. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (77%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 77% | Draw 16% | Dalkurd FF 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 39% | xG IK brage 2.35 / Dalkurd FF 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.262 / def 0.803 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.485 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: IK brage (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Dalkurd FF xG
39%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
IK brage vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 19 May 2022 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Dalkurd FF?
IK brage 0 - 0 Dalkurd FF.
Where is IK brage vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Dalkurd FF part of?
IK brage vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 77% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 6% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both IK brage and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Dalkurd FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Dalkurd FF in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IK brage's attack rating (1.26) and Dalkurd FF's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalkurd FF's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 3-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
77%
1.29
16%
6.09
6%
15.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
3 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.89
0.55
Dalkurd FF xG
1.29
77%
Home win
6.09
16%
Draw
15.77
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
10%
10.43
Win to Nil
45%
2.24
1%
164.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are IK brage and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for IK brage and 0.55 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Dalkurd FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for IK brage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dalkurd FF, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours IK brage by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalkurd FF heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. IK brage's scoring rate against Dalkurd FF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Dalkurd FF in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Early Season
Dalkurd FF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Dalkurd FF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IK brage
1
Draws
0
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, IK brage have won 1, Dalkurd FF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2022, when Dalkurd FF 1-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Dalkurd FF?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Dalkurd FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of IK brage's games and 100% of Dalkurd FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of IK brage's matches and 50% of Dalkurd FF's.
Stalemate at IK brage's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage and Dalkurd FF finished level at 0-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.35 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.55 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IK brage fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.26 / defence 0.80 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.48 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 77% | Draw 16% | Dalkurd FF 6%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 100%, Dalkurd FF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IK brage managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dalkurd FF managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.