IFK Varnamo 0-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Varnamo and Trelleborg meet at Finnvedsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 June 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.30 xG and Trelleborg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.998 / defence 0.862 | Trelleborg attack 1.206 / defence 1.458. League average goals — home 0.891 / away 1.014. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.458 — this is suppressing IFK Varnamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Trelleborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 IFK Varnamo games / 9 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 42% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 30%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Trelleborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jun 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 42% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.30 / Trelleborg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.998 / def 0.862 | Trelleborg attack 1.206 / def 1.458 | league avg home 0.891 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Trelleborg xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 June 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 42% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Trelleborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.21x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 8/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.60
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.35
1.05
Trelleborg xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.05 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
0
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Trelleborg?
From 2 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, Trelleborg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Trelleborg 2-3 IFK Varnamo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat IFK Varnamo 0-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.30 xG and Trelleborg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Varnamo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 1.00 / defence 0.86 against Trelleborg attack 1.21 / defence 1.46, drawn from 8/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 42% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 30%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.