IFK Varnamo 0-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Varnamo (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. IFK Varnamo haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
IFK Varnamo at Finnvedsvallen this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Orebro SK's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for IFK Varnamo, 1.40 for Orebro SK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
IFK Varnamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 47% versus Orebro SK 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 41% | Orebro SK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.41 xG and Orebro SK 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 1.187 / defence 0.918 | Orebro SK attack 0.748 / defence 0.742. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.342. Orebro SK's defence strength of 0.742 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 6 IFK Varnamo games / 36 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 48% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 25%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Orebro SK 4.00. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: IFK Varnamo 40% | Orebro SK 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 48% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.41 / Orebro SK 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 1.187 / def 0.918 | Orebro SK attack 0.748 / def 0.742 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Orebro SK xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 48% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Orebro SK in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (1.19) and Orebro SK's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.75x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.69
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.33
0.92
Orebro SK xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.92 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 8W 11D 13L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. IFK Varnamo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Orebro SK, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 17L across 32 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 0.78 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 3W 4D 9L from 16 games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orebro SK's away record stands at 1W 4D 11L across 16 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.25 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK in 69%.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 8W 11D 13L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 5W 10D 17L in their last 32 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Orebro SK away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (0.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 0.81 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.44 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
0
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Orebro SK?
From 2 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, Orebro SK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Orebro SK 1-3 IFK Varnamo.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for IFK Varnamo, 81% for Orebro SK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IFK Varnamo) and 69% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of IFK Varnamo's games and 81% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of IFK Varnamo's matches and 69% of Orebro SK's.
Do IFK Varnamo and Orebro SK tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orebro SK defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat IFK Varnamo 0-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.41 xG and Orebro SK 0.92 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Varnamo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 1.19 / defence 0.92 against Orebro SK attack 0.75 / defence 0.74, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 48% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 25%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Orebro SK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 41%, Orebro SK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orebro SK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.09 PPG, Orebro SK 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Orebro SK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.