IFK Varnamo 2-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 17 as IFK Varnamo welcome Landskrona BoIS to Finnvedsvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IFK Varnamo have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's home record at Finnvedsvallen: 6W 1D 1L from 8 Superettan appearances (2.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.38 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Finnvedsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.38 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — IFK Varnamo are significantly better at Finnvedsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.14 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IFK Varnamo 1.70 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IFK Varnamo, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2021, ended 0–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 19% versus Landskrona BoIS 69%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (IFK Varnamo 25% | Landskrona BoIS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.23 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.828 / defence 0.871 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.017 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.055. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing IFK Varnamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 IFK Varnamo games / 16 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 43% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 28%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Landskrona BoIS 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 25% | Landskrona BoIS 86%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 43% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.23 / Landskrona BoIS 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.828 / def 0.871 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.017 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Landskrona BoIS xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
IFK Varnamo 2 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 43% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Varnamo 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.45
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.16
0.94
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.94 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 9W 3D 4L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 9W 4D 3L from 16 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.88 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 2.29 PPG from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — IFK Varnamo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.69 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 69%.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 games (1.88 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.29 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.14 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 28 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-0 IFK Varnamo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 14%, Landskrona BoIS 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (IFK Varnamo) and 71% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 86% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 71% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Landskrona BoIS 2-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.23 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.94 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.02 / defence 1.31, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 43% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 28%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 25%, Landskrona BoIS 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.88 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.