Helsingborg 2-3 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Helsingborg at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Orgryte IS travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 August 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helsingborg — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympia this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Helsingborg 1.40 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Helsingborg, 0 for Orgryte IS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Helsingborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Helsingborg trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Orgryte IS trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 50% versus Orgryte IS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 44% | Orgryte IS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.15 xG and Orgryte IS 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.726 / defence 1.111 | Orgryte IS attack 0.763 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.130. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Helsingborg games / 46 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 39% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 30%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Orgryte IS 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 40% | Orgryte IS 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 39% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Helsingborg 1.15 / Orgryte IS 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.726 / def 1.111 | Orgryte IS attack 0.763 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Orgryte IS xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 8 August 2023 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Helsingborg 2 - 3 Orgryte IS.
Where is Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS part of?
Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 39% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Helsingborg and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Orgryte IS?
Record (3 meetings): Helsingborg 2W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and Orgryte IS in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.73x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.23
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.11
0.96
Orgryte IS xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.96 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helsingborg come into this having played 46 games, going 8W 10D 28L for 0.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.13 PPG from 46 outings (12W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 0.74 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helsingborg's home form reads 4W 5D 14L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Helsingborg are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.30 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 8W 10D 28L in their last 46 games (0.74 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 12W 16D 18L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Orgryte IS away?
Orgryte IS's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 0.74 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2021, when Helsingborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Helsingborg
1
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Helsingborg 0-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Orgryte IS?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 44%, Orgryte IS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Helsingborg) and 52% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 30%; Helsingborg have failed to score in 44% of games; Orgryte IS in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 56% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Helsingborg's recent games and 52% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat Helsingborg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Helsingborg 2-3 at Olympia, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.15 xG and Orgryte IS 0.96 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Helsingborg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orgryte IS outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.73 / defence 1.11 against Orgryte IS attack 0.76 / defence 1.14, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 39% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 30%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 44%, Orgryte IS 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 0.74 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.