Halmstad 1-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Halmstad at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Halmstad vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Trelleborg travel to Örjans Vall to take on Halmstad. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 June 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.58 xG and Trelleborg 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.937 / defence 0.917 | Trelleborg attack 1.031 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.362. Data: 10 Halmstad games / 40 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 43% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Trelleborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Halmstad at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Halmstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jun 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 43% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Halmstad 1.58 / Trelleborg 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.937 / def 0.917 | Trelleborg attack 1.031 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Trelleborg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Trelleborg kick off?
Halmstad vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 28 June 2022 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Trelleborg?
Halmstad 1 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Halmstad vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Trelleborg part of?
Halmstad vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 43% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Halmstad and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Halmstad and Trelleborg in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Trelleborg away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Halmstad's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Halmstad's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.73
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.87
1.29
Trelleborg xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
6%
16.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.29 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Halmstad
0
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Trelleborg?
From 2 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Trelleborg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2022, when Trelleborg 0-4 Halmstad.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Halmstad 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Halmstad 1-2 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.58 xG and Trelleborg 1.29 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Trelleborg attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 43% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 30%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.