GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.

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Full Analysis

NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Vasteras SK FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 8 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

GIF Sundsvall (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.

GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at NP3 Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Vasteras SK FK have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Vasteras SK FK are 1.00 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall in recent Superettan fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIF Sundsvall lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with GIF Sundsvall winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 55% versus Vasteras SK FK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 64% | Vasteras SK FK 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.08 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.808 / defence 1.368 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.222 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.094. Vasteras SK FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 GIF Sundsvall games / 42 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 22% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 55%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Vasteras SK FK 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Vasteras SK FK (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.

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