GIF Sundsvall 0-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Orgryte IS at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 6W 2D 1L from 9 Superettan appearances (2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Orgryte IS — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — GIF Sundsvall at 1.40 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Orgryte IS 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2021, ended 2–0 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS trading profile (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 47% versus Orgryte IS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (GIF Sundsvall 35% | Orgryte IS 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.98 xG and Orgryte IS 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.331 / defence 1.139 | Orgryte IS attack 0.834 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.094. GIF Sundsvall carry an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 GIF Sundsvall games / 18 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 59% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 19%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Orgryte IS 5.26. The model has a clear lean to GIF Sundsvall (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 56% | Orgryte IS 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 59% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.98 / Orgryte IS 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.331 / def 1.139 | Orgryte IS attack 0.834 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 6 September 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 59% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 1.33x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.66
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.02
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
3%
37.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.04 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 8W 4D 5L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS's form line: 4W 8D 5L from 17 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, GIF Sundsvall are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orgryte IS.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — GIF Sundsvall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 4W 8D 5L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Orgryte IS away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.22 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.00 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
4
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 56%, Orgryte IS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (GIF Sundsvall) and 56% (Orgryte IS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 67% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 56% of Orgryte IS's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat GIF Sundsvall 0-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.98 xG and Orgryte IS 1.04 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIF Sundsvall fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.33 / defence 1.14 against Orgryte IS attack 0.83 / defence 1.36, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 59% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 19%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 35%, Orgryte IS 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Orgryte IS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.