GIF Sundsvall 1-3 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees IFK Norrkoping travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IFK Norrkoping — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. IFK Norrkoping haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
IFK Norrkoping's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (GIF Sundsvall) versus 1.10 (IFK Norrkoping). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. GIF Sundsvall register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IFK Norrkoping in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 2 for IFK Norrkoping and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — GIF Sundsvall 57% and IFK Norrkoping 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | IFK Norrkoping 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.55 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.968 / defence 1.239 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.707 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.334. Data: 35 GIF Sundsvall games / 5 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 29%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Norrkoping 3.45. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | IFK Norrkoping 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.55 / IFK Norrkoping 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.968 / def 1.239 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.707 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.17
IFK Norrkoping xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 3 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 46% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (2 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 2W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.97x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
46%
2.16
25%
3.98
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.72
1.17
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.17 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 11W 7D 12L from 30 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 14L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. IFK Norrkoping haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.33 PPG, IFK Norrkoping on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 4W 5D 6L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.20 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.13 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
IFK Norrkoping have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when IFK Norrkoping won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
3
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping?
From 3 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-3 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — GIF Sundsvall at 60%, IFK Norrkoping at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (GIF Sundsvall) and 67% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 80% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat GIF Sundsvall 1-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.55 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.17 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.97 / defence 1.24 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.71 / defence 0.99, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 29%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual IFK Norrkoping win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, IFK Norrkoping 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.33 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.