GIF Sundsvall 0-0 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 47%, yet in-form GIF Sundsvall provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Falkenbergs FF travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 June 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 5W 2D 3L at NP3 Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have recorded 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Falkenbergs FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
GIF Sundsvall are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 0 for Falkenbergs FF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.22 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.842 / defence 1.076 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.102 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.366. Data: 40 GIF Sundsvall games / 10 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 29% | Draw 25% | Falkenbergs FF 47%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Falkenbergs FF 2.13. Falkenbergs FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Falkenbergs FF are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIF Sundsvall (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Falkenbergs FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 29% | Draw 25% | Falkenbergs FF 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.22 / Falkenbergs FF 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.842 / def 1.076 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.102 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Falkenbergs FF xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 0 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 29% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (2 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 2 | Falkenbergs FF 0W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
29%
3.48
25%
4.08
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.84
1.62
Falkenbergs FF xG
3.48
29%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.59
14%
7.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.62 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Falkenbergs FF sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. Falkenbergs FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
GIF Sundsvall carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.50 PPG clear of Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
Defensively: GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Early Season
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have GIF Sundsvall or Falkenbergs FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Falkenbergs FF in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Falkenbergs FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Falkenbergs FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Falkenbergs FF specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
3
Draws
3
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF?
From 6 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Falkenbergs FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 50% of Falkenbergs FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 100% of Falkenbergs FF's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at GIF Sundsvall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 11, as GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.22 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.62 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Falkenbergs FF landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Falkenbergs FF attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 29% | Draw 25% | Falkenbergs FF 47%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, Falkenbergs FF 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIF Sundsvall managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Falkenbergs FF managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.