Gefle IF 0-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 40%, yet in-form Gefle IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 25 as Gefle IF welcome Orgryte IS to Gavlevallen. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 3 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Gefle IF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF at Gavlevallen this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Gefle IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gefle IF have won 0, Orgryte IS 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gefle IF in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gefle IF 58% and Orgryte IS 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 54% | Orgryte IS 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.49 xG and Orgryte IS 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.874 / defence 1.337 | Orgryte IS attack 0.954 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.296. Data: 24 Gefle IF games / 54 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 33% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 40%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Orgryte IS 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gefle IF (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 50% | Orgryte IS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 33% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Gefle IF 1.49 / Orgryte IS 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.874 / def 1.337 | Orgryte IS attack 0.954 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Orgryte IS xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 3 October 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS?
Gefle IF 0 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 33% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Gefle IF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Orgryte IS?
Record (1 meetings): Gefle IF 0W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Gefle IF and Orgryte IS in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gefle IF's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
33%
3.04
27%
3.70
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
3.14
1.65
Orgryte IS xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
6%
15.87
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.65 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gefle IF's recent record stands at 9W 6D 9L from 24 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 12L across 24 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gefle IF by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orgryte IS heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gefle IF have managed 7W 2D 3L from 12 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 3W 2D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gefle IF are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.12 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 games (1.38 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Orgryte IS away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.92 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gefle IF and Orgryte IS runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Orgryte IS have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2024, when Orgryte IS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gefle IF's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Gefle IF
0
Draws
4
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Orgryte IS?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 0, Orgryte IS have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when Gefle IF 2-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 50%, Orgryte IS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Gefle IF) and 50% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Gefle IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gefle IF's recent matches and 50% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Gefle IF's recent games and 50% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gefle IF and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out Gefle IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Gefle IF 0-1 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.49 xG and Orgryte IS 1.65 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gefle IF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.87 / defence 1.34 against Orgryte IS attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 33% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 40%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 54%, Orgryte IS 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gefle IF arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Orgryte IS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.