Gefle IF 1-3 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIF Sundsvall make the trip to Gavlevallen to face Gefle IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
GIF Sundsvall have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. GIF Sundsvall haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.54 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.961 / defence 1.190 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.931 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.129. Data: 9 Gefle IF games / 9 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 44% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 30%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | GIF Sundsvall 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gefle IF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gefle IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 44% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Gefle IF 1.54 / GIF Sundsvall 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.961 / def 1.190 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.931 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.25
GIF Sundsvall xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Gefle IF 1 - 3 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 44% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gefle IF's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.93x) against Gefle IF's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
44%
2.30
26%
3.85
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.79
1.25
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.25 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIF Sundsvall won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gefle IF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gefle IF
1
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when GIF Sundsvall 3-0 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Gefle IF 1-3 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.54 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.25 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.96 / defence 1.19 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 44% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 30%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.