Gais 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host Vasteras SK FK at Nya Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.30 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.974 / defence 1.150 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 0.787. Data: 1 Gais games / 1 Vasteras SK FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gais 49% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 22%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Vasteras SK FK 4.55. Gais hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Nya Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 49% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Gais 1.30 / Vasteras SK FK 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.974 / def 1.150 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.162 / away 0.787 • Poisson stance: Gais (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Vasteras SK FK xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Gais vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at Nya Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Gais 1 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Gais vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Nya Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Gais vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 49% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gais and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Vasteras SK FK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gais's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.48
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Gais xG
Total xG
2.07
0.77
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gais and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gais and 0.77 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gais go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2021, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Gais
0
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Vasteras SK FK?
From 7 meetings on record, Gais have won 4, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Vasteras SK FK?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gais edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at Nya Ullevi, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.30 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.77 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gais 49% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 22%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.