Gais 0-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 38%, yet in-form Jonkopings Sodra provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jonkopings Sodra make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Gais in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Tuesday 24 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Gais (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Gais are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Jonkopings Sodra are 1.20 PPG clear of Gais in recent Superettan fixtures (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Gais, 1 for Jonkopings Sodra and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2021, ended 0–1 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 25% versus Jonkopings Sodra 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gais 19% | Jonkopings Sodra 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.29 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.886 / defence 1.301 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.912 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.029. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Gais games / 16 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 35%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jonkopings Sodra (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gais 50% | Jonkopings Sodra 44%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Gais 1.29 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.886 / def 1.301 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.912 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Gais (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Jonkopings Sodra xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 24 August 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Gais 0 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 38% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gais and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (1 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 1W.
What form are Gais and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Gais (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.89) and Jonkopings Sodra's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (0.91x) against Gais's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.72
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Gais xG
Total xG
2.51
1.22
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gais and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Gais and 1.22 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gais's recent record stands at 5W 2D 9L from 16 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 6L across 16 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jonkopings Sodra by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gais heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gais have managed 3W 1D 4L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jonkopings Sodra's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gais are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gais have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Gais's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.25 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Gais or Jonkopings Sodra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jonkopings Sodra in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gais
0
Draws
3
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 50%, Jonkopings Sodra 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gais) and 50% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gais's recent matches and 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gais's recent games and 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jonkopings Sodra defy the odds to beat Gais 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Gais 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.29 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.22 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gais fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.89 / defence 1.30 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 38% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 35%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Jonkopings Sodra win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 19%, Jonkopings Sodra 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jonkopings Sodra arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.