Enköping vs Orebro SK Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Enköping face Orebro SK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Orebro SK travel to Enavallen C-plan to take on Enköping in Superettan (Final). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Across their last 10 games, Orebro SK have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Orebro SK's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Enköping 1.50 xG and Orebro SK 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Enköping attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Orebro SK attack 1.078 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.302. Orebro SK's defence rating of 1.257 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Enköping's projected output up. Data: built from Enköping's last 0 games and Orebro SK's last 60.
Result probabilities: Enköping 34% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 39%. Fair-value odds: Enköping 2.96 | Draw 3.63 | Orebro SK 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Enköping vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Final | Venue: Enavallen C-plan • Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Enköping 34% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Enköping 1.50 / Orebro SK 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Enköping attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Orebro SK attack 1.078 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Enköping xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Orebro SK xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Enköping vs Orebro SK FAQs
What time does Enköping vs Orebro SK kick off?
Enköping vs Orebro SK is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Enavallen C-plan.
Where is Enköping vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Enavallen C-plan.
What competition is Enköping vs Orebro SK part of?
Enköping vs Orebro SK is a Superettan fixture (Final) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Enköping vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Enköping a 34% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Enköping vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Enköping and Orebro SK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Enköping vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Enköping's attack rating (0.85) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Enköping's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Enköping's last 0 games and Orebro SK's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
34%
2.96
28%
3.63
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Enköping xG
Total xG
3.11
1.61
Orebro SK xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
7%
14.88
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Enköping vs Orebro SK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Enköping vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Enköping and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Enköping and 1.61 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Enköping vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Enköping
Pre-Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Enköping (Home) vs Orebro SK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Enköping
Pre-Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Enköping home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.