Dalkurd FF 0-2 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalkurd FF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalkurd FF host Orebro SK at Studenternas IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalkurd FF stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalkurd FF at Studenternas IP this season: 4W 0D 4L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Dalkurd FF are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
Orebro SK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dalkurd FF at 0.80 PPG versus Orebro SK's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Dalkurd FF in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalkurd FF 40% versus Orebro SK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalkurd FF 53% | Orebro SK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.46 xG and Orebro SK 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.880 / defence 1.119 | Orebro SK attack 0.640 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.317. Data: 13 Dalkurd FF games / 13 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 48% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 24%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Orebro SK 4.17. Dalkurd FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dalkurd FF as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalkurd FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Dalkurd FF 50% | Orebro SK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 48% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Dalkurd FF 1.46 / Orebro SK 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Dalkurd FF attack 0.880 / def 1.119 | Orebro SK attack 0.640 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Dalkurd FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Dalkurd FF xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Orebro SK xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK?
Dalkurd FF 0 - 2 Orebro SK.
Where is Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK part of?
Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Dalkurd FF a 48% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dalkurd FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dalkurd FF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalkurd FF and Orebro SK in?
Dalkurd FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dalkurd FF's attack rating (0.88) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Dalkurd FF's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalkurd FF Win
48%
2.06
28%
3.62
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Dalkurd FF xG
Total xG
2.40
0.94
Orebro SK xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
6%
18.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Dalkurd FF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Dalkurd FF and 0.94 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalkurd FF's recent record stands at 4W 3D 8L from 15 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 7L across 15 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalkurd FF on 1.00 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalkurd FF have managed 3W 0D 4L from 7 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orebro SK's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalkurd FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalkurd FF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalkurd FF
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalkurd FF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Dalkurd FF have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalkurd FF at home or Orebro SK away?
Dalkurd FF's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalkurd FF at home: 1.29 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Dalkurd FF or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalkurd FF have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalkurd FF and Orebro SK runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dalkurd FF
0
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Orebro SK?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalkurd FF have won 1, Orebro SK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalkurd FF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2022, when Orebro SK 1-3 Dalkurd FF.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalkurd FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalkurd FF 43%, Orebro SK 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Dalkurd FF) and 43% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 43%; Dalkurd FF have failed to score in 43% of games; Orebro SK in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalkurd FF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalkurd FF play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Dalkurd FF's recent matches and 29% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Dalkurd FF's recent games and 43% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalkurd FF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Dalkurd FF have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dalkurd FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Dalkurd FF 0-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalkurd FF 1.46 xG and Orebro SK 0.94 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dalkurd FF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Orebro SK outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalkurd FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Orebro SK attack 0.64 / defence 1.12, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalkurd FF 48% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 24%, with Dalkurd FF to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Orebro SK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalkurd FF 53%, Orebro SK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orebro SK's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalkurd FF 1.00 PPG, Orebro SK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Dalkurd FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.