Dalkurd FF 2-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalkurd FF vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Dalkurd FF in Superettan, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Thursday 2 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gais (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Gais have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.00 xG and Gais 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Gais attack 0.712 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.268. Data: 0 Dalkurd FF games / 30 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 33% | Draw 32% | Gais 35%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Gais 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalkurd FF vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 33% | Draw 32% | Gais 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Dalkurd FF 1.00 / Gais 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Dalkurd FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Gais attack 0.712 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Gais (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Dalkurd FF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Gais xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalkurd FF vs Gais kick off?
Dalkurd FF vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 2 December 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Dalkurd FF vs Gais?
Dalkurd FF 2 - 1 Gais.
Where is Dalkurd FF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Dalkurd FF vs Gais part of?
Dalkurd FF vs Gais is a Relegation Round fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Dalkurd FF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Dalkurd FF a 33% chance of winning, Gais a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalkurd FF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dalkurd FF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Dalkurd FF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Gais?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalkurd FF and Gais in?
Gais (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Gais away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dalkurd FF's attack at 0.85x the league average against Gais's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.71x) against Dalkurd FF's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
33%
3.04
32%
3.11
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Dalkurd FF xG
Total xG
2.04
1.04
Gais xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalkurd FF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Dalkurd FF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Dalkurd FF and 1.04 for Gais, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalkurd FF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalkurd FF
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dalkurd FF
1
Draws
0
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Gais?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalkurd FF have won 1, Gais have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalkurd FF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2021, when Gais 1-1 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between Dalkurd FF and Gais?
Dalkurd FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalkurd FF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Dalkurd FF defy the odds to beat Gais 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalkurd FF beat Gais 2-1 at Studenternas IP, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalkurd FF 1.00 xG and Gais 1.04 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dalkurd FF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalkurd FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Gais attack 0.71 / defence 1.07, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalkurd FF 33% | Draw 32% | Gais 35%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Dalkurd FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.