AFC Eskilstuna 4-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Eskilstuna at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 10 as AFC Eskilstuna welcome Ostersunds FK to Tunavallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 5W 2D 3L at Tunavallen — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ostersunds FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AFC Eskilstuna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 50% versus Ostersunds FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 2.27 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.295 / defence 1.195 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.640 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.349. AFC Eskilstuna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 AFC Eskilstuna games / 9 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 64% | Draw 21% | Ostersunds FK 15%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Ostersunds FK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to AFC Eskilstuna (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Eskilstuna as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Ostersunds FK 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 64% | Draw 21% | Ostersunds FK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 2.27 / Ostersunds FK 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.295 / def 1.195 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.640 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Ostersunds FK xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK?
AFC Eskilstuna 4 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 64% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (1.29) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.78
15%
6.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
3.30
1.03
Ostersunds FK xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
6.70
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
10%
9.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
2%
64.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.03 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 11W 7D 12L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 8W 9D 13L from 30 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. Ostersunds FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.33 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 5D 4L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.10 PPG overall record — Ostersunds FK travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Ostersunds FK away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.87 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.53 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2022, when AFC Eskilstuna won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AFC Eskilstuna
2
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when Ostersunds FK 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 47%, Ostersunds FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 47% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 40%; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 40% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 47% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AFC Eskilstuna run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Ostersunds FK 4-1 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 2.27 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.03 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.29 / defence 1.20 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.64 / defence 1.21, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 64% | Draw 21% | Ostersunds FK 15%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 50%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.33 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.