AFC Eskilstuna 1-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Osters IF travel to Tunavallen to take on AFC Eskilstuna. The game is scheduled for Thursday 30 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's home record at Tunavallen: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AFC Eskilstuna 1.50 PPG, Osters IF 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AFC Eskilstuna, 1 for Osters IF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2021, ended 0–2 with Osters IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna in-play and half-time data (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 52% versus Osters IF 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AFC Eskilstuna 52% | Osters IF 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.53 xG and Osters IF 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.366 / defence 1.118 | Osters IF attack 0.667 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.131. AFC Eskilstuna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 21 AFC Eskilstuna games / 22 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 54% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 21%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Osters IF 4.76. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 60% | Osters IF 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 54% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.53 / Osters IF 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.366 / def 1.118 | Osters IF attack 0.667 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Osters IF xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 30 September 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
AFC Eskilstuna 1 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 54% chance of winning, Osters IF a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 0 | Osters IF 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (1.37) and Osters IF's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.88
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.38
0.84
Osters IF xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
4%
22.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.84 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Eskilstuna's recent record stands at 7W 6D 8L from 21 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 8L across 21 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.29 PPG, Osters IF on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AFC Eskilstuna have managed 6W 2D 1L from 9 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Osters IF's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osters IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 0.86 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Osters IF away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 2.22 PPG; Osters IF away: 0.78 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Osters IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AFC Eskilstuna
2
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, Osters IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osters IF tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 67%, Osters IF 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 22% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osters IF in 33%; Osters IF in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 22% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 22% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 22% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 23, as AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.53 xG and Osters IF 0.84 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.37 / defence 1.12 against Osters IF attack 0.67 / defence 1.05, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 54% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 21%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 52%, Osters IF 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.29 PPG, Osters IF 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.