AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Tunavallen to take on AFC Eskilstuna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AFC Eskilstuna's home record at Tunavallen: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AFC Eskilstuna 1.10 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AFC Eskilstuna, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 52% | Landskrona BoIS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.54 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.005 / defence 1.122 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.770 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.233. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 AFC Eskilstuna games / 29 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 47% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 25%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 4.00. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 60% | Landskrona BoIS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 47% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.54 / Landskrona BoIS 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.005 / def 1.122 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.770 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Landskrona BoIS xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS?
AFC Eskilstuna 1 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 47% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.64
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.60
1.07
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
5%
18.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.07 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Eskilstuna come into this having played 29 games, going 10W 7D 12L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (13W 5D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.28 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AFC Eskilstuna's home form reads 7W 4D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (2W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.41 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 10W 7D 12L in their last 29 games (1.28 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 13W 5D 11L in their last 29 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.79 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 50%, Landskrona BoIS 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 57% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 64% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Eskilstuna edge out Landskrona BoIS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.54 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.07 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.77 / defence 1.39, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 47% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 25%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 52%, Landskrona BoIS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.28 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.