AFC Eskilstuna 0-2 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Eskilstuna at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 18 as AFC Eskilstuna welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Tunavallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's home record at Tunavallen: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (AFC Eskilstuna) versus 1.00 (Jonkopings Sodra). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AFC Eskilstuna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AFC Eskilstuna have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Jonkopings Sodra have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AFC Eskilstuna and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 60% versus Jonkopings Sodra 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 57% | Jonkopings Sodra 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.79 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.121 / defence 0.921 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.811 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.296. Data: 47 AFC Eskilstuna games / 47 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 56% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 19%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Jonkopings Sodra 5.26. The model has a clear lean to AFC Eskilstuna (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 60% | Jonkopings Sodra 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Monday 8 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 56% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.79 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.121 / def 0.921 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.811 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Jonkopings Sodra xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 August 2022 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
AFC Eskilstuna 0 - 2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 56% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 3W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 0W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.03
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.76
0.97
Jonkopings Sodra xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
3%
31.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.97 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 19W 10D 18L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra's form line: 14W 12D 21L from 47 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.43 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (13W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 5W 6D 12L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.23 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 19W 10D 18L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 14W 12D 21L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.91 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 4, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 2-2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 56%, Jonkopings Sodra 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 48% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jonkopings Sodra in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 56% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 48% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jonkopings Sodra cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AFC Eskilstuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat AFC Eskilstuna 0-2 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.79 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.97 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Jonkopings Sodra outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.12 / defence 0.92 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 56% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 19%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Jonkopings Sodra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 57%, Jonkopings Sodra 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.43 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jonkopings Sodra win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.