Vasteras SK FK 1-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hitachi Energy Arena plays host to Vasteras SK FK versus Malmo FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Vasteras SK FK (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's home record at Hitachi Energy Arena: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Malmo FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Malmo FF have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Malmo FF are 1.20 PPG clear of Vasteras SK FK in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Malmo FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vasteras SK FK 0W, Malmo FF 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Malmo FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vasteras SK FK — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Malmo FF — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 46% versus Malmo FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 52% | Malmo FF 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.01 xG and Malmo FF 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.810 / defence 1.278 | Malmo FF attack 1.115 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.216. Data: 26 Vasteras SK FK games / 56 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 24% | Malmo FF 54%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Malmo FF 1.85. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 80% | Malmo FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 24% | Malmo FF 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.01 / Malmo FF 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.810 / def 1.278 | Malmo FF attack 1.115 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Malmo FF xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 21% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF?
Record (1 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 0 | Malmo FF 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vasteras SK FK's attack at 0.81x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.11x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
21%
4.66
24%
4.08
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.74
1.73
Malmo FF xG
4.66
21%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
4%
26.32
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.73 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasteras SK FK's recent record stands at 24W 10D 22L from 56 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 37W 10D 9L across 56 games — 2.16 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasteras SK FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vasteras SK FK have managed 13W 6D 9L from 28 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 15W 6D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.18 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 24W 10D 22L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 37W 10D 9L in their last 56 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.61 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
1
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF?
From 3 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Malmo FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 46%, Malmo FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vasteras SK FK) and 61% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Malmo FF in 39%; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 46% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 61% of Malmo FF's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF finished level at 1-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.01 xG and Malmo FF 1.73 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.81 / defence 1.28 against Malmo FF attack 1.11 / defence 0.84, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 24% | Malmo FF 54%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 52%, Malmo FF 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Malmo FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.