Varbergs BoIS FC 1-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Varberg Energi Arena plays host to Varbergs BoIS FC versus Malmo FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 24 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC at Varberg Energi Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Varberg Energi Arena.
Malmo FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Varbergs BoIS FC 1W, Malmo FF 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2021, ended 2–3 with Malmo FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Varbergs BoIS FC 60% and Malmo FF 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 55% | Malmo FF 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 0.74 xG and Malmo FF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.694 / defence 0.818 | Malmo FF attack 1.331 / defence 0.695. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.110. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Malmo FF's defence strength of 0.695 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 53 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 21% | Draw 32% | Malmo FF 46%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Malmo FF 2.17. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Varbergs BoIS FC 50% | Malmo FF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 21% | Draw 32% | Malmo FF 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 0.74 / Malmo FF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.694 / def 0.818 | Malmo FF attack 1.331 / def 0.695 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Malmo FF xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 21% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Malmo FF?
Record (3 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 1W | Draws 1 | Malmo FF 1W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Malmo FF in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (0.69) and Malmo FF's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.33x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
21%
4.65
32%
3.08
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
1.95
1.21
Malmo FF xG
4.65
21%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
6%
15.57
22%
4.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 17.2 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.21 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 17W 14D 22L from 53 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 30W 14D 9L across 53 games — 1.96 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Varbergs BoIS FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 11W 7D 8L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 12W 7D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.11 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Malmo FF in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 17W 14D 22L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 30W 14D 9L in their last 53 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.54 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Malmo FF go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won 0-6 on 4 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
2
Draws
5
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Malmo FF?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Malmo FF have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Malmo FF 5-0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 65%, Malmo FF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 65% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Malmo FF in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 62% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 65% of Malmo FF's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Varbergs BoIS FC and Malmo FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC and Malmo FF finished level at 1-1 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 0.74 xG and Malmo FF 1.21 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.69 / defence 0.82 against Malmo FF attack 1.33 / defence 0.69, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 21% | Draw 32% | Malmo FF 46%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 55%, Malmo FF 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.