Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 25 as Varbergs BoIS FC welcome IF Elfsborg to Varberg Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 October 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Varberg Energi Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Elfsborg stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Varbergs BoIS FC at 1.00 PPG versus IF Elfsborg's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, IF Elfsborg 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2020, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Varbergs BoIS FC 62% and IF Elfsborg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 58% | IF Elfsborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.911 / defence 1.317 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.954 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.400. Data: 24 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 24 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 25% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 47%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | IF Elfsborg 2.13. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 70% | IF Elfsborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Oct 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 25% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 / IF Elfsborg 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.911 / def 1.317 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.954 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.76
IF Elfsborg xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 October 2020 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 25% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 0W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 0W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (0.91) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
25%
3.95
28%
3.59
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
3.02
1.76
IF Elfsborg xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
4%
22.92
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.76 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 7W 6D 11L from 24 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 3L across 24 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Varbergs BoIS FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 5W 2D 5L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 5W 5D 2L across 12 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.62 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; IF Elfsborg in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 9W 12D 3L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.42 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jun 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
4
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Varbergs BoIS FC at 75%, IF Elfsborg at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 50% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 58% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Varbergs BoIS FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg finished level at 0-0 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.76 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.32 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.95 / defence 1.19, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 25% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 47%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 58%, IF Elfsborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.