Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IF Elfsborg (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Varbergs BoIS FC face IF Elfsborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Varbergs BoIS FC welcome IF Elfsborg to Varberg Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 2W 4D 4L at Varberg Energi Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Elfsborg stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IF Elfsborg — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
IF Elfsborg have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 6 encounters against Varbergs BoIS FC's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 55% versus IF Elfsborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | IF Elfsborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.31 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.969 / defence 1.112 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.051 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.163. Data: 31 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 31 IF Elfsborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 36% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 38%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | IF Elfsborg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Varbergs BoIS FC 50% | IF Elfsborg 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 36% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.31 / IF Elfsborg 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.969 / def 1.112 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.051 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
IF Elfsborg xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 36% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
Record (6 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 0W | Draws 3 | IF Elfsborg 3W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (0.97) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
36%
2.78
26%
3.85
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.36
IF Elfsborg xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.36 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 19W 16D 25L from 60 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 30W 14D 16L across 60 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Varbergs BoIS FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 10W 10D 10L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 14W 6D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.77 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.33 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jun 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
4
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 40%, IF Elfsborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 50% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 33%; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 47% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Varbergs BoIS FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg finished level at 0-0 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.31 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.36 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 36% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 38%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, IF Elfsborg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.