Sirius 0-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 37%, yet in-form IF Elfsborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sirius vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 12 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Sirius (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sirius are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IF Elfsborg are 1.10 PPG clear of Sirius in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sirius register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, IF Elfsborg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 67% and IF Elfsborg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 60% | IF Elfsborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.17 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.943 / defence 0.963 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.110 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.044. Data: 35 Sirius games / 35 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 37% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | IF Elfsborg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Elfsborg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sirius 80% | IF Elfsborg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 37% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Sirius 1.17 / IF Elfsborg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.943 / def 0.963 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.110 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Sirius (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.12
IF Elfsborg xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 12 May 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Sirius 0 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 37% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sirius and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and IF Elfsborg in?
Sirius (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.94x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.11x) against Sirius's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.44
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.29
1.12
IF Elfsborg xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sirius and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sirius and 1.12 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 11D 10L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (12W 15D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 5W 6D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.67 points per game from 15 outings (6W 7D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.63 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; IF Elfsborg in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 9W 11D 10L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 12W 15D 3L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.40 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
0
Draws
6
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Sirius, 60% for IF Elfsborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sirius and 47% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Sirius's games and 60% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sirius's matches and 47% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Sirius and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Sirius 0-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.17 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.12 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.2 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 37% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 34%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 60%, IF Elfsborg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.