Sirius 1-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Sirius (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sirius are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IF Elfsborg are 0.80 PPG clear of Sirius in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sirius have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, IF Elfsborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 68% and IF Elfsborg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 64% | IF Elfsborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.31 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.073 / defence 1.317 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.919 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.397. Data: 28 Sirius games / 28 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 29% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 45%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | IF Elfsborg 2.22. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 80% | IF Elfsborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 29% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Sirius 1.31 / IF Elfsborg 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.073 / def 1.317 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.919 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.69
IF Elfsborg xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 November 2020 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Sirius 1 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 29% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sirius and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and IF Elfsborg in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.07x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.92x) against Sirius's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
29%
3.49
26%
3.83
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.00
1.69
IF Elfsborg xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
5%
18.91
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sirius and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sirius and 1.69 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 10D 9L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.75 PPG from 28 outings (12W 13D 3L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 5W 5D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.71 points per game from 14 outings (6W 6D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.64 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; IF Elfsborg in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 9W 10D 9L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 12W 13D 3L in their last 28 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.43 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
0
Draws
6
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Sirius, 57% for IF Elfsborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Sirius and 50% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Sirius's games and 57% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Sirius's matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Sirius and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius and IF Elfsborg finished level at 1-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.31 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.69 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.07 / defence 1.32 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 29% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 45%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 64%, IF Elfsborg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.