Sirius 1-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Djurgardens IF make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sirius's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Djurgardens IF are 1.00 PPG clear of Sirius in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 63% versus Djurgardens IF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 56% | Djurgardens IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 0.88 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.860 / defence 1.028 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.018 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.095. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.750 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Sirius games / 46 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 26% | Draw 35% | Djurgardens IF 40%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Djurgardens IF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | Djurgardens IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 26% | Draw 35% | Djurgardens IF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Sirius 0.88 / Djurgardens IF 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.860 / def 1.028 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.018 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Djurgardens IF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Sirius vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Sirius 1 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Sirius vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Sirius vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 26% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sirius and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Djurgardens IF in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (0.86) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.02x) against Sirius's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
26%
3.89
35%
2.88
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.02
1.15
Djurgardens IF xG
3.89
26%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 15.1 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sirius and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Sirius and 1.15 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 16D 17L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.78 PPG from 46 outings (24W 10D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 8W 7D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (11W 4D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.61 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 13W 16D 17L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 24W 10D 12L in their last 46 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.41 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Sirius or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 8-2 on 29 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 68%, Djurgardens IF 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sirius) and 46% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Sirius's recent matches and 41% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Sirius's recent games and 46% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 0.88 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.02 / defence 0.75, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 26% | Draw 35% | Djurgardens IF 40%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 56%, Djurgardens IF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.