Sirius 3-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees BK Hacken travel to Studenternas IP to take on Sirius. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 November 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sirius have posted 4W 1D 5L at Studenternas IP — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sirius 1.10 PPG, BK Hacken 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BK Hacken in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 64% and BK Hacken 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 59% | BK Hacken 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.65 xG and BK Hacken 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.004 / defence 1.258 | BK Hacken attack 1.091 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.157. Data: 58 Sirius games / 58 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 23% | BK Hacken 37%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | BK Hacken 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | BK Hacken 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 23% | BK Hacken 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Sirius 1.65 / BK Hacken 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.004 / def 1.258 | BK Hacken attack 1.091 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Sirius (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.59
BK Hacken xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs BK Hacken kick off?
Sirius vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 November 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Sirius 3 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is Sirius vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs BK Hacken part of?
Sirius vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 40% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sirius and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and BK Hacken in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.00) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
40%
2.52
23%
4.30
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.24
1.59
BK Hacken xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Sirius and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sirius and 1.59 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius come into this having played 58 games, going 18W 18D 22L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.47 PPG from 58 outings (21W 22D 15L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.24 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sirius's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (6W 15D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.57 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; BK Hacken in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 18W 18D 22L in their last 58 games (1.24 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 21W 22D 15L in their last 58 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or BK Hacken away?
Sirius's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.41 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Sirius won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sirius
2
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, BK Hacken have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
BK Hacken see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sirius at 66%, BK Hacken at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sirius) and 45% (BK Hacken).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Sirius's games and 69% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Sirius's recent games and 45% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sirius run riot with a 3-0 hammering of BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat BK Hacken 3-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.65 xG and BK Hacken 1.59 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.00 / defence 1.26 against BK Hacken attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 40% | Draw 23% | BK Hacken 37%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 59%, BK Hacken 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
BK Hacken's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.24 PPG, BK Hacken 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.